The copper tang of desperation hangs heavy in the air as the world's oil supply teeters on the brink of collapse. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels, those shadowy forces of chaos, have taken advantage of the infighting among US allies in the Gulf to claim the critical Bab al-Mandeb Strait as their own. The consequences are nothing short of catastrophic.
In the past week, the rebel group has methodically taken control of the strategic waterway, accused of masterminding the devastating strike on Saudi Arabia's massive East-West oil pipeline. The damage is expected to be long-lasting, with the pipeline likely to remain shut down for weeks. The ripple effect is already being felt, with the price of a barrel of oil jumping to $108 on Tuesday.
Yemen, once a fragile truce held between the Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized government, now finds itself plunged into chaos. The brief respite of peace had been maintained by third-party, anti-Houthi groups backed by the United Arab Emirates, but the alliance crumbled in December. Saudi forces bombed weapons intended for the UAE-backed groups, prompting Abu Dhabi to withdraw from the conflict entirely, fracturing the anti-Houthi coalition.
The consequences of this infighting are dire. Perim Island, a key stronghold in the heart of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, fell to the Houthi's lightning assault over the weekend. The island's control allows the terror group to threaten any Saudi vessel attempting to cross the 20-mile-wide strait. The waterway has become Saudi Arabia's main export route after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the kingdom with only the Suez Canal as an alternative. The journey through the Suez Canal adds weeks to oil tankers' journeys, a stark reminder of the fragility of global supply chains.
As the Houthis face off against splintered groups, the pressure to respond has fallen squarely on Saudi Arabia. The kingdom, already grappling with Iran, has been criticized for reacting too slowly to the crisis. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had spoken to President Trump last week to request US military aid, but the president reportedly demurred, saying he would do everything but launch new attacks.
Saudi Arabia's crude exports are expected to take another hit, with exports from its main Red Sea port already dropping by nearly half last month to just 2.5 million barrels a day. The kingdom's main port of Yanbu has only about five to seven days of exports currently available following the attack on the 745-mile-long East-West Pipeline, industry insiders told The Guardian. The writing is on the wall: Saudi Arabia's crude exports are poised to take a devastating hit.
As the stakes continue to rise, the world waits with bated breath for the Houthis' next move. Will they continue to wreak havoc on the global oil supply, or will they ultimately retreat? Only time will tell. In the meantime, the world's energy markets will continue to be buffeted by the winds of war and chaos. The price of oil will continue to soar, and the world will be forced to confront the very real possibility of a global energy crisis.
Written by: Sierra Jones | The Citizen Edition
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