War Enters Bleak New Phase as Death Toll Rises

The war in Iran has entered a bleak new phase, with the weekend deaths of three U.S. service members leaving White House allies afraid the president is rapidly running out of ways to extricate the country from an unpopular, expensive conflict ahead of the midterms.

Structural calculations indicate that the president's latest threats are a means to get Iran back to the negotiating table, as opposed to any genuine attempt to escalate the war. Mediators passed to Iran a proposal to deescalate the war with the U.S. that would establish a 10-day ceasefire in an effort to revive the agreement reached by the two countries last month.

Inevitably, the president's focus is on punishing Iran for violating the memorandum of understanding, attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and, now, the deaths of U.S. service members. The military deaths and promises of revenge are casting a grim shadow over the summer campaign season, during which the president and his party were hoping to refocus on their popular tax cuts, Trump accounts for newborns, and lower drug prices.

In this vein, the juxtaposition is stark: ahead of a scheduled campaign-style speech in Georgia on Wednesday set to tout the administration's economic agenda, the president had been expected to travel to Dover Air Force Base on Tuesday to attend the dignified transfer of the soldiers killed this weekend in the Middle East. The dignified transfer was postponed Monday night.

The war has become a persistent dark cloud that is souring the national mood which typically depresses the base of the party in power and motivates supporters of the opposition. And additional escalation is likely to continue driving up the price of oil, which reached nearly $90 a barrel on Monday, according to the international Brent crude index, a number that further imperils GOP prospects in an election that is just over three months away.

Military options open to the president include escalating the U.S.'s naval blockade and attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Even though Trump last month conceded he was unsure if Americans had the "appetite" for a longer, broader war, some of the president's supporters say Tehran is underestimating his tolerance for political risk.

The deaths of American servicemembers are likely to add pressure for Trump to respond forcefully, said a second person close to the White House granted anonymity to speak candidly. "His patience has always been limited, but I think we're now seeing the consequences of that," the person said. "A good indicator of where he intends to go is his massive defense budget request to Congress. He wants to ensure the United States has more than enough capability to sustain any future operations if necessary."

The White House also requested $67 billion to cover the costs of the war, a move that further underscores the administration's commitment to the conflict. In addition to the $1.5 trillion defense budget, the legislation is stalled in the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has argued that the legislation, which reliably becomes law each year, was tantamount to "a permission slip for that recklessness that we see occurring in Iran" and last week, Senate Democrats blocked it from advancing to the floor.

The war's economic impact on everyday Americans will only continue to grow as oil prices rise, casting a shadow over the summer campaign season. The juxtaposition is stark: ahead of a scheduled campaign-style speech in Georgia on Wednesday set to tout the administration's economic agenda, the president had been expected to travel to Dover Air Force Base on Tuesday to attend the dignified transfer of the soldiers killed this weekend in the Middle East. The dignified transfer was postponed Monday night.

Inevitably, additional escalation is likely to continue driving up the price of oil, which reached nearly $90 a barrel on Monday, according to the international Brent crude index, a number that further imperils GOP prospects in an election that is just over three months away.