Election Earthquake Rocks Nation

As the nation's gaze turns to the tumultuous midterm elections, a sense of chaos and confusion has taken hold. The year 2026 will forever be etched in the annals of American politics as a time when both major parties were beset by self-inflicted wounds and messy missteps that complicated their paths to victory.

In the lead-up to Election Day, each party had its own clear game plan. Republicans would focus on border security and an economy still shaking off years of high inflation. Democrats, meanwhile, would zero in on a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump to energize their voters. But as the campaign season progressed, reality defied expectations.

It began with a little more than three months to go before the midterm elections, when Republicans found themselves grappling with a host of unexpected problems. President Trump's relentless push for border security had led to a war against Iran that showed no signs of abating, disrupting global oil supplies and sending prices at the pump soaring. The president remained fixated on purging his party of dissent and relitigating his election defeat six years ago. His next stop was Georgia, where he would ostensibly promote new investment accounts for children, but what he would actually talk about was anyone's guess.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats were mired in an internal civil war between moderates and progressives. Democratic socialists had successfully ousted incumbents in places like New York and Denver, forcing some of their candidates to implode spectacularly and jeopardizing races that the party had expected to win.

The drama had turned existential as each party faced a moment of reckoning. Democrats were still reeling from Trump's reelection and desperate for a path back to power. Republicans, meanwhile, were beginning to contemplate a post-Trump era even as the president maintained an iron grip on the party.

Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster, summed up the mood succinctly: "We really do not know what's going to happen in November."

Scandals have rocked Democrats

In Wisconsin, one of the nation's most closely divided battleground states, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez had abandoned her bid for governor just as she seemed to be consolidating support. The party establishment was now worried that her departure would elevate Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist viewed by party leaders as a potentially weak opponent against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the likely Republican nominee.

After her exit, David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, jumped back into the race and received a rare endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers, the Democratic incumbent. The fear was that if Democrats lost in Wisconsin, Trump's most loyal lackey in Congress would take control of the state, sending party leaders into a panic.

"If we lose, Trump's most loyal lackey in Congress takes control of Wisconsin, and that's turned regular Democratic angst into flop sweats," said longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross. "Still, he predicted that once the focus moves past the primary fight, 'Democratic unity will be so high in Wisconsin we'll all be getting nosebleeds.'"

Democrats' most consequential derailment might have taken place in Maine, where the party is eager to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins as part of a nationwide push to regain control of the chamber.

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political outsider, rode a wave of grassroots energy to beat the establishment pick, Gov. Janet Mills, for the Democratic nomination, only to drop out after facing allegations of sexual assault, which he denies.

Supporters had hoped Platner would be the kind of candidate who could win white working-class voters back to the party, despite controversies including a tattoo widely recognized as a Nazi symbol and a history of inflammatory social media posts. Now Democrats are holding a convention this coming weekend to choose a replacement candidate.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and consultant, noted that activists and voters had been willing to overlook potential vulnerabilities while supporting outsiders for office.

"There is something in the air that has made these candidates incredibly reckless and thinking that they can get away with it," she said, pointing to Trump as a potential explanation. "I think Trump has kind of created a high-risk environment."

Marc Short, the former chief of staff to Trump's first-term vice president, Mike Pence, compared the dynamic to when the tea party ushered in a wave of untested Republican candidates who famously beat establishment figures in primaries but lost in November, costing Republicans the Senate even as they made gains in the House.

"I feel like when there is a lot of energy on one side that you can tend to nominate candidates that create hurdles for you and limit what your gains could be," he said.

Divisions between Democrats are on display

Other races have forced Democrats to confront some of their deepest divisions and questions about which wing of the party will best position it to win the next presidential election.

In Michigan, progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed has worried party leaders like Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer who fear he's too far left to win in the battleground state. Democrats will need to hold the Michigan seat opened by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters if they want a shot at winning the majority this year.

The primary also highlights a schism over Israel. El-Sayed, running to become the first Muslim U.S. senator, has described Israel's military campaign in Gaza as a genocide, an accusation rejected by Israel and the White House. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing primary rival Haley Stevens, their largest investment ever in a race.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said it's clear that voters across the country are rebelling against a political system they see as rigged and are yearning for candidates willing to fight on their behalf.

He said candidates like El-Sayed would serve as proof of concept going into 2028 that "bold, shake-up-the-system economic fighters" are more electable in purple and red states than "stale, status quo corporate-aligned Democrats."

In Washington, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., downplayed the idea that the ideological divisions would endanger Democrats.

"A healthy party is a party that has arguments," he said. "I think our party should be debating ideas. We should be having hotly contested primaries."

Republicans rocked by retirements and ousted incumbents

Republicans are facing their own challenges as they try to buck historic precedent and maintain congressional control.

Trump reshaped this year's Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists to replace them. That includes the Senate race in Texas, where he successfully ousted longtime Sen. John Cornyn, whom he saw as insufficiently loyal, and endorsed Ken Paxton, a fiery conservative with a lengthy history of corruption allegations.

Republican leaders had warned his nomination would put the state in play and force the party to spend millions of dollars defending what would have otherwise been a safe seat.

Another challenge has emerged in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump last year over healthcare spending. Democrats hope to flip the seat with former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist, said Trump "has exacerbated the problem" of a political culture that has produced more extreme candidates on both sides of the aisle thanks to closed primaries.

Trump can boost candidates — or hold them back

Republicans have historically struggled when Trump is not on the ballot. But he also risks weighing candidates down.

Just 37% of U.S. adults approve of how he's handling the presidency, according to the most recent AP-NORC poll, which shows deep dissatisfactions over his handling of the economy and other issues.

But instead of staying focused on lowering prices, Trump has continued his bombardment of Iran in a struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies. He also delivered a primetime address to the nation in which he again sowed doubts about the legitimacy of U.S. elections and continued to dispute his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden in an appeal for more restrictive voting laws.

"Trump is our biggest ally," said Lake, the Democratic pollster and consultant. "He's the best things that Democrats have going. And it's the gift that keeps on going."

But Jenny Beth Martin, chair of the grassroots conservative group Tea Party Patriots Action, disagreed.

"President Trump is the single greatest advantage Republicans have in the midterm elections," she said in a statement. "The energy and enthusiasm he generates is incomparable, and we're counting on him to motivate his supporters to go to the polls."

As the nation's gaze remains fixed on the tumultuous midterm elections, it remains unclear what the future holds for either party. One thing is certain, however: the stakes are higher than ever before.